Deficit analysis: service capacity assessment and planning in developing countries – case study in the Philippines

Current demand analysis methods do not formally cover the case of chronic deficits in quantity or quality of water and sanitation services. These services include drinking water supply (DWS), wastewater and sewage treatment (WST), and municipal solid waste management (MSW). Formal analysis of this case would, at minimum, define the deficit state and evaluate appropriate options for reducing it. This paper proposes for a formal analytical model for municipal sanitation systems (MSS) that operate with deficits in at least one of the constituent services of DWS, WST, or MSW. The model introduces definitions and notation for describing the deficit state for conducting demand analysis on municipal sanitation systems. This model of demand analysis for systems with chronic deficits will hereinafter be referred to as deficit analysis. A case study for Bacoor, Philippines is presented as an example.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

2002年3-6月国内安全事故数据

统计了2002年3-6月国内发生的各种安全事故871起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,矿业事故最多,占61. 8%,平均每天4.5起事故,其次是交通事故(16.3%)、爆炸事故(6.7%)、火灾(6.0%)、其他事故(5.6%)、毒物泄露和中毒(3.7%).871起事故共死亡2 197人,伤3 321人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故53.7%、交通事故28.0%、火灾6.1%、爆炸事故5.9%、其他事故5.1%、泄露中毒1.2%;受伤人数的百分比分别为泄露中毒37.4%、交通事故26.9%、爆炸事故14.2%、矿业事故11.8%、其他事故5.3%、火灾4.4%.     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。     

中国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价体系和实证分析

我国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价指标体系包括四个层次和三级子系统，内容涉及养老保险人数、机构设置、基金管理和代际平衡四个子目标。应用因子分析模糊综合评价方法对我国1990-2001年养老保险建设状况进行评价，本文认为基金管理，行政管理和代际失衡是影响我国可持续养老保险发展的主要因素。     

南宁城市大气污染对人体健康的危害及治理对策

南宁市大气属煤烟型污染 ,大气的主要污染物为SO2 、NOx、TSP、降尘 ,虽然随着环境管理和污染治理工作的加强 ,污染物浓度逐年下降 ,但是工业区大气污染仍然较重。污染物流行病学调查显示 :工业区癌症和呼吸系统疾病死亡率均高于全市平均水平 2倍左右 ,城区又高于郊区 2倍 ,大气污染综合指数与呼吸内科门诊就诊人数呈正相关。用邓聚龙的灰色系统理论分析得知污染物对癌症和呼吸系统疾病死亡率有关联 ,关联度从大到小排序为 :TSP >降尘 >SO2 >NOx ,最后提出了大气污染治理的对策。     

北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

Evaluation of the temporal variations of air quality in Taipei City, Taiwan, from 1994 to 2003

Data collected from the five air-quality monitoring stations established by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration in Taipei City from 1994 to 2003 are analyzed to assess the temporal variations of air quality. Principal component analysis (PCA) is adopted to convert the original measuring pollutants into fewer independent components through linear combinations while still retaining the majority of the variance of the original data set. Two principal components (PCs) are retained together explaining 82.73% of the total variance. PC1, which represents primary pollutants such as CO, NO(x), and SO(2), shows an obvious decrease over the last 10 years. PC2, which represents secondary pollutants such as ozone, displays a yearly increase over the time period when a reduction of primary pollutants is obvious. In order to track down the control measures put forth by the authorities, 47 days of high PM(10) concentrations caused by transboundary transport have been eliminated in analyzing the long-term trend of PM(10) in Taipei City. The temporal variations over the past 10 years show that the moderate peak in O(3) demonstrates a significant upward trend even when the local primary pollutants have been well under control. Monthly variations of PC scores demonstrate that primary pollution is significant from January to April, while ozone increases from April to August. The results of the yearly variations of PC scores show that PM(10) has gradually shifted from a strong correlation with PC1 during the early years to become more related to PC2 in recent years. This implies that after a reduction of primary pollutants, the proportion of secondary aerosols in PM(10) may increase. Thus, reducing the precursor concentrations of secondary aerosols will be an effective way to lower PM(10) concentrations.     

安全评价方法在危险废物处置环境风险评价中的应用探讨

对安全评价方法在危险废物处置建设项目环境风险评价中的运用进行初步探索。主要用"工艺过程风险因素分析表"对工艺过程潜在风险性识别;用蒙德法进行源项分析;用池火灾模型、蒸气云爆炸伤害模型对易燃、易爆物质的火灾、爆炸等重大事故后果进行计算,得出人员的伤亡半径和财产损失半径等参数,以便于判断风险的可接受水平。分析结果表明:采用安全评价方法对危险废物处置建设项目进行环境风险评价是适用的、可行的。     

官地水电站竹子坝料场高边坡的稳定性分析及其影响因数研究

竹子坝料场是官地水电站混凝土浇筑骨料的重要来源之一。结合竹子坝料场的地形地质情况,以及料场开挖后形成的东、南、西三段人工边坡,运用刚体极限平衡的方法进行稳定性分析及其影响因数的研究。